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This page is updated every three hours2023-05-23
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by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-23 18:18:44 UTCThe Labour Market Returns to Sleep By: Joan Costa-Font (LSE – London School of Economics and Political Science, IZA – Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit – Institute of Labor Economics, CESifo – Center for Economic Studies and Ifo for Economic Research – CESifo Group Munich); Sarah Fleche (CES – Centre d’économie de la Sorbonne – UP1 – Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne – CNRS – Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UP1 – Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CEP – LSE – Centre for Economic Performance – LSE – London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE – London S [...]
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by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-23 18:16:40 UTCWomen’s transitions in the labour market as a result of childbearing: the challenges of formal sector employment in Indonesia By: Lisa Cameron (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Diana Contreras Suarez (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Yi-Ping Tseng (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne) Abstract: Although it is well established that women’s labour force participation drops markedly with marriage and childbearing, surprisingly little i [...]
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by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-23 18:15:56 UTCAir pollution: a review of its economic effects and policies to mitigate them By: Laura Hospido (Banco de España, CEMFI and IZA); Carlos Sanz (Banco de España and CEMFI); Ernesto Villanueva (Banco de España) Abstract: Air pollution is an increasing cause of concern among the scientific community, policymakers and the general public. This interest has led to a sharp increase in the number of scientific papers on air pollution. This paper provides a summary of the most prominent recent economic literature on the effects of air pollution, the main policy lessons that can be drawn from it, [...]
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by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-23 18:14:01 UTCDoes School Choice Increase Crime? By: Andrew Bibler; Stephen B. Billings; Stephen Ross Abstract: School choice lotteries are an important tool for allocating access to high-quality and oversubscribed public schools. While prior evidence suggests that winning a school lottery decreases adult criminality, there is little evidence for how school choice lotteries impact non-lottery students who are left behind at their neighborhood school. We leverage variation in actual lottery winners conditional on expected lottery winners to link the displacement of middle school peers to adult crimina [...]
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by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-23 18:13:12 UTCPaying Moms to Stay Home: Short and Long Run Effects on Parents and Children By: Jonathan Gruber; Tuomas Kosonen; Kristiina Huttunen Abstract: We study the impacts of a policy designed to reward mothers who stay at home rather than join the labor force when their children are under age three. We use regional and over time variation to show that the Finnish Home Care Allowance (HCA) decreases maternal employment in both the short and long term. The effects are large enough for the existence of home care benefit system to explain the higher short-term child penalty in Finland than compara [...]
2023-05-16
- What the people want
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2023-05-16 08:14:09 UTCYears ago, before the Great Forgetting , economists knew that people's preferences often did not originate with themselves but were instead cultivated by producers themselves. Inspired by Vance Packard's best-selling 1957 book, The Hidden Persuaders , J.K. Galbraith wrote: Production fills only a void that it has itself created...That wants are in fact the fruit of production wll now be denied by few serious scholars...The even more direct link between production and wants is provided by the institutions of modern advertising and salesmanship. These cannto be reconciled with the notion of ind [...]
2023-05-10
- Winners and Losers in the AI Arms Race
by Barry Eichengreen in Project Syndicate, 2023-05-10 08:45:30 UTCBERKELEY – The first rule of forecasting, the financial journalist Jane Bryant Quinn once observed , is this: give them a forecast or give them a date; just never give them both. So, here’s a not very bold forecast: Generative artificial-intelligence models like ChatGPT will revolutionize the economy. We just can’t say when. Nor can we say where. Among the key questions lost amid the flurry of commentary on generative AI is which countries will benefit, and which will not. Will the United States, a first mover in this domain, grow even more dominant economically? Will developing countri [...]
2023-05-01
- Constructing forward interest rates in FRED
by ? in FRED blog, 2023-05-01 13:00:00 UTCA forward interest rate is a rate that pertains to a future loan and/or bond purchase. A forward transaction can be arranged in an over-the-counter market with a financial institution, or it can be constructed from existing fixed income instruments. A forward rate contract has at least two elements: the contract start and length. For example, a forward loan contract might commence 2 years in the future and last for 6 months. Such a contract might be termed a 6-month contract, 2 years ahead. Interest rate contracts (bonds or loans) that start immediately (or nearly so) are called spot market c [...]
2023-04-25
- Decarbonization Requires New Fiscal Rules
by Max Krahé in Project Syndicate, 2023-04-25 11:45:08 UTCBERLIN – Climate policy is at a critical juncture . The world’s leading scientists see a rapidly closing window to avoid the worst ravages of global warming. With the enactment of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) last year, the United States has finally taken meaningful domestic action to reduce emissions. Now Europe is scrambling to respond. But the narrowly technical approach prevailing in the European Union – and particularly in Germany, its biggest member state – is steering Europe toward fiscal shoals and social turmoil. To chart a safer, more sustainable course, climate policy must b [...]
- Are startups engaging in innovation in India?
by Anurodh in Ajay Shah's blog, 2023-04-25 08:46:00 UTCby Aneesha Chitgupi, Karthik Suresh and Diya Uday . Introduction What is a startup? The academic literature takes a broad view --- startups: have a high growth rate (Moogk 2012), have a lower number of employees (Beck et al. 2008), are at the early stage of the life cycle of a firm (Eisenmann 2013, Stevenson and Jarillo 1990), and are drivers of innovation (Cohen and Klepper, 1996). However, governments across the world focus on the link between startups and innovation. In the Netherlands , a startup is defined as "a business that translates an innovative idea into a scalable and generic [...]
2023-04-15
- When clever people do stupid things
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2023-04-15 09:09:47 UTCSimon Wren Lewis asks : There is no doubt that Lawson was far better qualified than many other Chancellors, and also that he was clever, so why did he get these major judgements wrong? It's a good question because it broadens. Clever people gave us the poll tax, the invasion of Iraq, financial crisis and collapses of Silicon Valley and Credit Suisse. So why do they so often get it wrong. There are many reasons. One, which Simon attributes to Lawson, is arrogance. In ignoring his advisors, Lawson did not go as far as Kwasi Kwarteng (double first, PhD and Browne medal) who sacked one of his. [...]
2023-04-13
- A Bank Murder Mystery
by Barry Eichengreen in Project Syndicate, 2023-04-13 15:33:42 UTCBERKELEY – When a banking crisis erupted in early March, pundits rushed to the battlements, or at least to their studies, to hammer out columns assigning the blame. Unsurprisingly, those early assessments, based on still-incomplete information, often contradicted one another. It is worth recalling Walter Raleigh’s dictum: those who follow too close on the heels of history risk getting kicked in the teeth. A month later, the narrative has coalesced around four aspects, or interpretations, of the crisis. The first is what might be called the incompetent-management view. Silicon Valley Bank’s [...]
2023-04-05
- I ran Sarah Jacobson's "Ore Money Ore Problems" resource extraction game in class yesterday @SarahJacobsonEc
by John Whitehead in Environmental Economics, 2023-04-05 08:15:00 UTCHere is the abstract from the paper which is forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Education: Economic theories of the exploitation of depletable natural resources are built around a core model of intertemporal profit maximization that predicts that (barring unforeseen shocks) scarcity crises will not arise because forward looking resource owners will smooth extraction over time. The model that provides this result can seem opaque to students, but its intuition can be more easily grasped from experience. This paper shares a game that provides that experience. Participants play the role of mi [...]
2023-04-04
- Legal and finance jobs are among the most at risk from AI, while construction and trade jobs face minimal influence, studies suggest
by bnolan@insider.com (Beatrice Nolan) in Business Insider, 2023-04-04 10:33:58 UTCGenerative AI could lead to the widespread automation of jobs, new research found. sorbetto/Getty Images Generative AI could lead to the widespread automation of jobs, new research found. But blue-collar roles in manufacturing and construction face minimal influence, data indicates. Here's why some industries will likely be more affected than others by the technology. Rapid advances in artificial intelligence are stoking employee concerns about the automation of jobs. Generative AI , a type of AI capable of generating text and other content in response to user prompts, has exploded in populari [...]
2023-03-29
- Announcements
by Anurodh in Ajay Shah's blog, 2023-03-29 05:06:00 UTCTrustBridge is an organisation working in the area of rule of law in the economy. We engage in academic and policy oriented research and advocacy in the areas of Energy Transition, Financial Markets, Governance in Private Capital, and Government Contracting and Litigation. TrustBridge is looking for full time researchers to work on projects in the area of regulation of financial markets, governance and energy transition. Financial markets The financial markets project involves studying the working of regulators in securities markets, banking and payments, insolvency, and insurance. This incl [...]
2023-03-21
- What the World Bank Can Do About Climate Change
by Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg in Project Syndicate, 2023-03-21 09:21:06 UTCNEW HAVEN – Few institutions have shown as much versatility and adaptability as the World Bank. Initially founded to address global capital-market imperfections after World War II, the institution’s primary mission evolved over time to focus on fighting extreme poverty. But now that the World Bank is welcoming a new president this July, it should adapt again, this time to address climate change. Poverty reduction, of course, should remain a high priority, considering that the COVID-19 pandemic has left many low-income countries in dire straits. But climate change has emerged as an equally i [...]
2023-03-20
- Fifty Years of Floating Currencies
by Jeffrey Frankel in Project Syndicate, 2023-03-20 13:58:41 UTCCAMBRIDGE – Fifty years ago this month, in March 1973, the Bretton Woods arrangement of fixed exchange rates was abandoned, and the world’s major currencies – including the US dollar, pound, yen, and Deutsche Mark – were allowed to float. At the time, the system’s demise was generally considered a policy failure. But the shift from fixed to flexible exchange rates was probably inevitable. The international monetary system that was designed at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, in 1944, helped lay the economic foundation for the postwar international order. Over the next three decades, known in F [...]
2023-03-13
- Technical regress
by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2023-03-13 09:05:07 UTCThere's a fascinating TV series on now about modern social and economic history. I refer of course to the re-runs of Brookside on STV Player. One thing this shows is how many opportunities there in the 80s were for workers to top up their wages by stealing from their employers, either by putting their hands in the till or by nicking stuff to sell to their friends. The closure of such opportunities thanks in part to technical change might help explain increased inequality and the Easterlin paradox, as I discussed here . But there's something else. In one episode the post arrives at breakfast t [...]
2023-03-05
- If You Say âConvenience Yieldâ I Will Not Take You (or Your Research) Seriously
by cpirrong in Streetwise Professor, 2023-03-05 22:57:06 UTCI have a relatively simple way to filter out serious research on commodity prices from the not-so-serious. If you rely on “convenience yield” I will not take you seriously. Alas, based on this filter, the bulk of commodities research is unserious. For the uninitiated (consider yourself lucky!), convenience yield is an attempt to explain that commodity futures prices are typically at less than “full carry”, i.e ., that futures prices are below the spot price plus the cost of carrying inventory (financing plus physical storage costs). Furthermore, convenience yield is invoked to explain [...]
- Health impact of increasing access to physicians
by Jason Shafrin in Healthcare Economist, 2023-03-05 20:49:16 UTCOut recently is an interesting AEA paper by Okeke 2023 , who examines a policy experiment by the Nigerian government that aimed determine whether expand access to physicians improved health outcomes. In this experiment, some communities were randomly selected to receive a new doctor. These doctors were posted to the local public health center. Prior to their arrival, health care was provided by midlevel health-care providers (MLP). To separate the effect of (ostensibly higher) quality from that of quantity, another group of communities was provided with an additional midlevel provider. [...]
2023-03-03
- Now we just wait for the comment from Desvousges, Mathews and Train
by John Whitehead in Environmental Economics, 2023-03-03 10:10:00 UTCYesterday I spent 2 hours revising a final version of this paper so that we can say it is "forthcoming" in Applied Economic Perspectives & Policy . Here is Figure 1: [...]
2023-03-01
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by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-03-01 10:35:12 UTCLabor market insurance policies in the XXI century By: Boeri, Tito; Cahuc, Pierre Abstract: The recovery from the Covid-19 crisis will force governments to accelerate transformation in their menu of labor market policy tools. The crisis was a stress test for unemployment insurance schemes as it involved a sudden and unexpected shutdown of a very large set of activities. This forced countries to introduce, often from scratch, income support schemes for workers under new forms of employment, and the self-employed. There was also a considerable expansion of short-time work schemes notably tow [...]
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by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-03-01 10:34:26 UTC2022: A SUMMARY OF ARTEFACTUAL FIELD EXPERIMENTS ON FIELDEXPERIMENTS.COM: THE WHO’S, WHAT’S, WHERE’S, AND WHEN’S By: John List Abstract: 2022 Summary of Artefactual Experiments Date: 2023 URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:artefa:00767&r=ltv [...]
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by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-03-01 10:32:26 UTCWhat makes a satisfying life? Prediction and interpretation with machine-learning algorithms By: Clark, Andrew E.; D’Ambrosio, Conchita; Gentile, Niccoló; Tkatchenko, Alexandre Abstract: Machine Learning (ML) methods are increasingly being used across a variety of fields and have led to the discovery of intricate relationships between variables. We here apply ML methods to predict and interpret life satisfaction using data from the UK British Cohort Study. We discuss the application of first Penalized Linear Models and then one non-linear method, Random Forests. We present two key model [...]
2023-02-27
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by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-02-27 18:52:29 UTCExplaining Happiness Trends in Europe By: Easterlin, Richard A. (University of Southern California); O’Connor, Kelsey J. (STATEC Research – National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies) Abstract: In Europe differences among countries in the overall change in happiness since the early 1980s have been due chiefly to the generosity of welfare state programs— increasing happiness going with increasing generosity and declining happiness with declining generosity. This is the principal conclusion from a time series study of ten Northern, Western, and Southern European countries with [...]
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by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-02-27 18:50:57 UTCThe Adventure of Running Experiments with Teenagers By: Antonio Alfonso-Costillo (Universidad Loyola); Pablo Brañas-Garza (Universidad Loyola); Diego Jorrat (Universidad Loyola); Pablo Lomas (Universidad Loyola); Benjamin Prissé (Universidad Loyola); Mónica Vasco (Universidad Loyola) Abstract: Economists are increasingly interested in how to conduct experiments with teenagers. This paper evaluates whether different methodological factors impact the answers of teenagers to standard experimental tasks on measuring time preferences, risk preferences, cognitive abilities and financial abili [...]