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2024-07-26

• Will AI Kill Off Money?
  by Jean-Pierre Landau in Project Syndicate, 2024-07-26 09:05:25 UTC

  PARIS – We have forgotten the true virtues of money. We commonly view it in purely instrumental terms – as a device that facilitates exchange and stores value over time. Compared to bartering, coins and paper currency are profoundly convenient. But money is more than just an instrument. As Fyodor Dostoevsky famously observed , “money is minted freedom.” It supports our existence as autonomous individuals in a decentralized economy. The situation will be very different, however, if we someday live in a world governed by an artificial intelligence endowed with complete information and infinite [...]

2024-07-09

• Breaking the Mould: Reimagining India’s Economic Future – review
  by Dalton,A in LSE Review of Books, 2024-07-09 11:00:57 UTC

  In Breaking the Mould, Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba put forward an alternative path for India’s economy based on service sector growth, human capital investment and a less restrained market. Though she credits the book’s lucid style and the boldness of its vision, Areesha Khan finds that its economic strategy lacks a robust grounding and ultimately fails to convince. Breaking the Mould: Reimagining India’s Economic Future . Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba. Penguin Business (India). 2023. As the title suggests, Breaking the Mould: Reimagining India’s Economic Future by Raghuram Rajan and Roh [...]

2024-06-27

• Empirical Estimates of Loss Aversion
  by Jason Shafrin in Healthcare Economist, 2024-06-27 00:12:25 UTC

  Kahneman and Tversky’s Prospect Theory posit that individuals have loss aversion. What is loss aversion? It means that individuals experience losses more intensely than gains of the same magnitude; for instance, the psychological impact of losing a certain amount of money is greater than the pleasure derived from gaining that same amount. A key question is how much more intensely to individuals experience gains than losses? To formalize things, prospect theory assumes the following utility function: The most widely cited estimates are for these parameters are from Tversky and Kahn [...]

2024-05-16

• Ice cream is a seasonal product, right?
  by ? in FRED blog, 2024-05-16 13:00:00 UTC

  We have published this post in mid-May, which seems like the time people would start indulging in ice cream. It’s not quite “I scream for ice cream” time, but the days are getting sufficiently warm to warrant stocking up cool treats. And ice cream is the quintessential seasonal product that is only in demand when it’s hot out. Right? Just look at the FRED graph for ice cream production: A classic example of seasonality! But wait… These data are very old. How does it look if we use current data? The FRED graph below shows ice cream production since 1972 (in red). Yes, it is still seasonal, but [...]

2024-05-08

• The usefulness of the CMIE household survey data for electricity research in India
  by Anurodh in Ajay Shah's blog, 2024-05-08 08:35:00 UTC

  by Susan Das, Renuka Sane and Ajay Shah. Measurement for electricity research The problems of the electricity system are of particular importance in India given that the existing institutional arrangements work relatively poorly. While this has been a concern for decades given the importance of electricity in economic growth, it has achieved a fresh prioritisation due to the need for a clean energy transition. The problems of electricity sector have become the critical bottleneck for the decarbonisation of the economy (Jaitly and Shah, 2021). De jure government subsidies, and de facto [...]

2024-04-29

• The range of bank deposits worldwide
  by ? in FRED blog, 2024-04-29 13:00:00 UTC

  Safe and sound banks are key to a healthy US economy and are at the heart of promoting growth and development . Banks’ basic intermediary function of matching savers with investors is predicated on receiving deposits that can be transformed into loans. There is no rule of thumb for how large those deposits need to be for banks to best operate as financial intermediaries, and there are large differences among countries in that regard. The FRED map shows data from the World Bank about the value of bank deposits by nation divided by the value of that nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). This i [...]

2024-04-26

• Assessing regulatory capability in Tamil Nadu electricity regulation: Evidence from appeals
  by Anurodh in Ajay Shah's blog, 2024-04-26 04:34:00 UTC

  by Bhavin Patel and Renuka Sane . The Indian journey to decarbonisation faces the roadblocks of electricity policy . One of the critical impediments faced is that of state capability in electricity regulation. There is a new body of knowledge in India, in regulatory theory, that can usefully be brought to bear on the problem of improving electricity regulation. One element of this field is the question of assessing the state of regulatory capability. At any point in time, how would we judge the extent to which electricity regulation in a certain state is working well? Electricity is regulat [...]

2024-04-08

• 350+ coauthors study reproducibility in economics
  by ? in Marginal Revolution, 2024-04-08 06:49:37 UTC

  Jon Hartley is one I know, here is the abstract: This study pushes our understanding of research reliability by reproducing and replicating claims from 110 papers in leading economic and political science journals. The analysis involves computational repro [...]

2024-04-01

• 54. Publications of the Euro-American Association in year 2024: Articles and ebook Chapters
  by MCG Blogs de Economía in Euro-American Association: World Development, 2024-04-01 18:21:00 UTC

    Newly accepted articles for Volumes 24-1 of journals AEID and RSES Applied Econometrics and International Development (AEID), Volume 24-1: January-June 2024 Articles listed at the journal Website in March of 2024 Gender analysis of the global labour market and comparative analysis of kazakhstan, 2019-2021, Kuanysh ALPYSBAYEV, Aizhan MUKHAMADIYEVA, Meruert KANABEKOVA, Arailym ORAZGALIYEVA, Balapanova ELMIRA   Abstract Investment Policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan: Main Directions and Development Trends, Nurzan DEMEUOV, Ainur ISSAYEVA, Ardak YESDAULETOVA  Abstract Productivity and Regional T [...]

2024-03-29

• The Global Pharmaceutical Industry Isn’t Investing in Products for the Greatest Burden of Human Disease - Are Non-Profits a Solution?
  by Payal Arya, Fred Ledley in INET Blog, 2024-03-29 17:02:45 UTC

  Programs for expedited review may be preferentially reducing the development costs for conditions with lesser disease burden, potentially making investments in addressing the most significant disease burdens even less appealing and exacerbating the market failure further. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 1.7 billion people around the world are in need of measures to prevent or treat neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), conditions that collectively account for as many as 200,000 deaths/year and a burden of disease running in the hu [...]

2024-03-28

• The state of capitalism
  by michael roberts in Michael Roberts Blog, 2024-03-28 10:10:04 UTC

  The book, The State of Capitalism, is an ambitious work.  Written by the NAMe Collective with the lead from Professor Costas Lapavitsas from SOAS University, London, it seeks to analyse all aspects of capitalism in the 21 st century from a Marxist perspective.  It has been widely praised by the likes of Yanis Varoufakis and Grace Blakeley, leading rock stars of leftist economics. According to the authors, the book “is the outcome of collective writing that combines different types of knowledge and experience, while still finding a common voice. For several years, the European Research [...]

2024-03-22

• The European Union’s New Risk-Based Framework for Fiscal Rules – Overly Complex, Opaque and Self-Defeating
  by Helene Schuberth in INET Blog, 2024-03-22 14:03:00 UTC

  The discrepancy between technocratic rhetoric and economic facts is colossal. Introduction and Summary On February 10 th , 2024, representatives of the European Council, the European Parliament (EP), and the European Commission (EC) reached an agreement on yet another reform of the fiscal rules. [1] The legislative package still has to be approved by both the European Council and the European Parliament by the end of April 2024. While the new rules have thus far received little attention, they will shape the fate of the European Union (EU) economy [...]

2024-03-13

• Started from the Bottom: Bayesian SPNE and Probability in HRM
  by ? in The Labour Econ Blog, 2024-03-13 09:06:50 UTC

  by Alfred Anate Mayaki.   Bayes’ application to HRM is limited to event probability but is a topic that is mentioned in passing in a paper on shirking and presenteeism by S. Brown (2004) recommended by Dr. Andrew Bryce (Sheffield), which was written over 20 years ago this year. Brown (2004) reads as follows: “Such ‘shirking’ is potentially costly to firms and may incite them to undertake monitoring. BST** envisage a monitoring technology in which there is some probability, α < 1, of each absentee’s true state of health being revealed to the firm.” After deciding to initiate a brief scoping [...]

2024-03-11

• Two definitions of bubbles
  by ? in Econlog, 2024-03-11 03:14:53 UTC

  In a recent post , I pointed out that how we define words doesn’t matter when considering substantive issues. Thus whether addition is defined as a mental illness should have no bearing on how we treat addiction. An old Noah Smith Bloomberg column reminds me of how definitions can lead us astray. Smith points out that (in 2018) Bitcoin prices had recently crashed, after previously soaring to a peak of $19,000. He acknowledges that Bitcoin prices might boom again in the future, but nonetheless defines this as a “bubble”: But for ordinary investors, who don’t tend to get in early on potentiall [...]

2024-03-06

• Japan’s Self-Inflicted Decline
  by Daniel Gros in Project Syndicate, 2024-03-06 16:03:34 UTC

  MILAN – Japan should be doing well. It boasts a well-educated and disciplined workforce, and outdoes most other industrialized countries on both investment and spending on research and development . In fact, at 3.3% of GDP, Japanese R&D expenditure was higher even than that of the United States until recently. And yet, Japan’s relative decline continues. In the 1980s and 1990s, Japan was the world’s second-largest economy, not least because of its seemingly unbeatable industrial sector. Today, however, it is the world’s fourth-largest economy, with data showing that it recently fell behind G [...]

2024-02-25

• WTO ministerial trading in low expectations and high stakes
  by Ken Heydon in East Asia Forum, 2024-02-25 11:00:00 UTC

  The World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) 13th Ministerial Conference takes place in Abu Dhabi on 26–29 February. It is expected to include a deal providing transparency and predictability in electronic commerce, endorse an agreement on investment facilitation for development and admit two least developed countries, Timor Leste and the Comoros, as WTO members. Though welcome, these are modest expectations. This is particularly so given the promises from the 12th Ministerial Conference — tackling fisheries subsidies and offering the hope of restoring a ‘ fully functioning dispute settl [...]

2024-02-22

• The paradox of empowerment: gender norms and intimate partner violence in PNG
  by Alexander Smith in Development Policy Blog, 2024-02-22 19:00:32 UTC

  Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a global scourge, with nearly one in three women experiencing violence at the hands of a partner at least once in their lifetime. Rates of violence are particularly high in PNG, where the prevalence rate is one in two women. How do we change this? It is tempting to think that improving the disparity in resources or economic status between women and their partners would be an effective mechanism to reduce financial dependence and improve women’s ability to leave violent relationships. This logic is known as the household bargaining theory. It proposes that ind [...]

2024-02-16

• How AI deepfakes threaten the 2024 elections
  by Rehan Mirza in Journalist's Resource, 2024-02-16 18:41:26 UTC

  Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Reddit Email Last month, a robocall impersonating U.S. President Joe Biden went out to New Hampshire voters, advising them not to vote in the state’s presidential primary election.  The voice, generated by artificial intelligence, sounded quite real. “Save your vote for the November election,” the voice stated, falsely asserting that a vote in the primary would prevent voters from being able to participate in the November general election.   The robocall incident reflects a growing concern that generative AI will make it cheaper and easier to spread misin [...]

2024-02-14

• Pakistan’s Middle-Class Rage Against Military Rule
  by Adeel Malik in Project Syndicate, 2024-02-14 16:05:43 UTC

  OXFORD – Pakistan’s general election on February 8, marred by allegations of widespread voting irregularities, resulted in a hung parliament and the formation of a coalition government consisting of the country’s two major dynastic parties. Nevertheless, the outcome represents a stunning defeat for the country’s powerful military, as candidates backed by the imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan ’s Tehreek-e-Insaf Party (PTI) secured more parliamentary seats than any other political bloc despite a two-year crackdown on its voters and supporters. Although PTI did not win enough seats t [...]

• A Negative Income Tax, One Step at a Time
  by Ed Dolan in Ed Dolan's Econ Blog, 2024-02-14 14:52:00 UTC

  The negative income tax (NIT) sometimes seems like the carbon tax of social policy. Both are irresistibly appealing to economists and have long pedigrees. Both are supported by blindingly persuasive logic. Yet neither policy seems capable of mustering much political support in 21st-century Washington politics. I see two things as essential in repackaging the NIT for today’s America. The first essential is to recognize the reality of path dependency — the need to start from where we are, not from a clean slate, and take things one step at a time.  Gerald Gaus  calls that approach “exploring the [...]

2024-02-01

• Saving for college
  by ? in FRED blog, 2024-02-01 14:00:00 UTC

  The FRED Blog has discussed the income and wealth boosts from graduating college (a.k.a. the college premium ). This premium does seem to justify the expense of a college education, and today we discuss how to pay for it by using a 529 saving plan. 529 plans are named after the section of the federal tax code that rules their treatment. The FRED graph above shows data from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System reporting the dollar value of savings held in two types of 529 plans: College saving plans (the blue area): These are purchased shares in mutual funds administered by st [...]

2024-01-11

• Are Things Really that Bad?
  by noreply@blogger.com (Michael Ward) in Managerial Econ, 2024-01-11 17:31:00 UTC

  Binsbergen, Bryzgalova, Mukhopadhyay, and Sharma develop an index of economic sentiment for the US (and individual states) from accumulated news reports. They use a historical collection of 170 years of digitized newspapers, which includes the text of 200 million newspaper pages from 13,000 local newspapers, collecting instances of a bunch of keywords like "profitable", "success", "opportunity" versus "failure", "insolvent", or "unsuccessful". It turns out it predicts economic activity quite well. � � � � � � However, the authors also note that sentiment trends downward significantly over the [...]

2024-01-10

• ASSA 2024 part two – the radical sessions: imperialism, profitability and climate change
  by michael roberts in Michael Roberts Blog, 2024-01-10 09:40:41 UTC

  Within the huge ASSA meeting, there are sessions organized by heterodox economics associations, in particular, by the Union of Radical Political Economics (URPE) .  Attendance at these sessions is small, but the quality of the papers is large. Let me start with annual David Gordon lecture hosted by URPE at ASSA every year.  Each year, a leading radical economist gives a lecture on a subject of choice.  This year, David McNally gave the 25 th lecture on Marx on Colonization: The End of Capital and the Beginning of a Journey .  David McNally has contributed a Marxist perspective on many impo [...]

2024-01-01

• Child Penalty amid Korea's Declining Fertility
  by jisoohwang@snu.ac.kr (Jisoo Hwang) in Asia Economics Blog, 2024-01-01 09:26:51 UTC

  Co-author: Inkyung Yoo.   With the gender gap in educational attainment narrowing, “child penalty” – the effect of parenthood on labor market outcomes – is considered the largest remaining obstacle in eliminating the gender pay gap in developed countries. Recent studies show that women’s earnings drop significantly following first childbirth whereas men’s earnings remain largely unaffected. Various policies are being discussed and studied with the goal of reducing the child penalty. However, from an individual woman's perspective, there is a sure way to avoid the child penalty – to not have a [...]

2023-12-28

• Annual Review 2023
  by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend, 2023-12-28 05:49:00 UTC

  I've been doing these annual reviews since 2011. They're mainly an exercise for me to see what I accomplished and what I didn't in the previous year.  The big new development this year is that together with Johannes Sauer and Eric Yu Sheng I took on the joint editor-in-chief role of the Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics . My goal, apart from the usual ones of increasing the impact, prestige, and outreach of the journal, is to get more environmental and resource economics papers published in the journal. So, if you have a suitable paper, please send it to us! We started [...]

2023-12-21

• Research Review | 21 DEC 2023 | Portfolio Design & Risk Factors
  by James Picerno in The Capital Spectator, 2023-12-21 12:12:07 UTC

  Factor Zoo (.zip) Alexander Swade (Lancaster University) et al. October 2023 The number of factors allegedly driving the cross-section of stock returns has grown steadily over time. We explore how much this ‘factor zoo’ can be compressed, focusing on explaining the available alpha rather than the covariance matrix of factor returns. Our findings indicate that about 15 factors are enough to span the entire factor zoo. This evidence suggests that many factors are redundant but also that merely using a handful of factors, as in common asset pricing models, is insufficient. While the selected fact [...]