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EconAcademics.org

Blog aggregator for economics research

2023-09-20

• Warum Biden größere Chancen auf eine Wiederwahl hat, als viele denken
  by ? in Makronom, 2023-09-20 21:58:56 UTC

  Die Amerikaner sehen sowohl die wirtschaftliche Lage als auch die Arbeit von Präsident Joe Biden sehr kritisch. Dennoch dürften die Demokraten mehr Grund für Optimismus haben, als die jüngsten Umfragen vermuten lassen. [...]

2023-09-14

• Why does women’s employment change with the seasons? : An answer from the NBER
  by ? in FRED blog, 2023-09-14 13:00:00 UTC

  Summer is ending. As the new school year gears up, some areas of economic activity will get seasonal boosts—such as increases in retail sales of office supplies as incoming students and their families buy what they need for the classroom. Female employment also picks up at this time of year. Recent research on labor markets finds that the childcare services provided by formal schooling drive this increase in employment. The FRED graph above replicates Figure 1 in a related piece of research: the NBER Working Paper, “ The Summer Drop in Female Employment ,” by Brendan Price and Melanie Wasserm [...]

2023-09-05

• Gender income disparity in the USA
  by Ivan Kitov in Economics as Classical Mechanics, 2023-09-05 20:26:00 UTC

   This paper "Gender income disparity in the USA: analysis and dynamic modelling" is also of interest Abstract We analyze and develop a quantitative model describing the evolution of personal income distribution (PID) for males and females in the U.S. between 1930 and 2014. The overall microeconomic model, which we introduced ten years ago, accurately predicts the change in mean income as a function of age as well as the dependence on age of the portion of people distributed according to the Pareto law. As a result, we have precisely described the change in the Gini ratio since the start of inc [...]

• Race and gender income inequality in the USA: black women vs. white men
  by Ivan Kitov in Economics as Classical Mechanics, 2023-09-05 20:23:00 UTC

  Almost every day, I have a request to publish this paper " Race and gender income inequality in the USA: black women vs. white men" � in medical and social journals. Do not understand the reason for such an interest.�� Abstract Income inequality between different races in the U.S. is especially large. This difference is even larger when gender is involved. In a complementary study, we have developed a dynamic microeconomic model accurately describing the evolution of male and female incomes since 1930. Here, we extend our analysis and model the disparity between the black and white population [...]

2023-08-31

• The High Costs of Biden's Price-Controlled Drugs
  by Ronald Bailey in Hit & Run blog, 2023-08-31 21:09:02 UTC

  Government-imposed price controls on goods and services always lead to shortages. For example, economic research has consistently shown that rent control results in less new housing construction . The Biden administration's imposition of price caps on prescription drugs under the provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will result in much the same thing: fewer new cures developed. The IRA gives the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) the [...]

• Neo-kaleckianos e Historia Económica. ¿Qué sabemos sobre los “regímenes de crecimiento”?
  by HenryW in Pasado y Presente de la Economia Mundial, 2023-08-31 19:15:53 UTC

  Pablo Marmissolle (Universidad de la República, Uruguay) Pablo Marmissolle es docente de Historia Económica Mundial y Desarrollo Económico del Uruguay en la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración (FCEA) de la Universidad de la República (UdelaR), Uruguay, así como investigador en Historia Económica del Instituto de Economía (IECON) de esa misma Facultad. Es Licenciado y Magíster en Economía por la UdelaR y estudiante de Doctorado en Historia Económica en la Universidad de Valencia, España. RESUMEN. Los modelos neo-kaleckianos basados en el trabajo de Bhaduri & Marglin ( [...]

2023-08-24

• Why We Can't Have Nice Things: Bootleggers, Baptists, and Ballots
  by Eric Boehm in Hit & Run blog, 2023-08-24 17:00:47 UTC

  Arkansas has some of the strangest liquor laws in the country—or at least the most politically contentious. Unlike a lot of other places, the state allows counties to hold referendums to decide whether they will allow the retail sale of alcohol. That is, whether they will be "wet" or "dry." And when those elections take place, it's often existing liquor stores—the very businesses that earn money by selling booze—that campaign the hardest to keep county-lev [...]

2023-08-14

• AI is going to eliminate way more jobs than anyone realizes
  by insider@insider.com (Emil Skandul) in Business Insider, 2023-08-14 10:00:02 UTC

  The AI revolution is about the crash into the global economy and upend millions of jobs. Arantza Pena Popo/Insider A tidal wave is about to crash into the global economy.  The rise of artificial intelligence has captured our imagination for decades, in whimsical movies and sober academic texts. Despite this speculation, the emergence of public, easy-to-use AI tools over the past year has been a jolt, like the future arrived years ahead of schedule. Now this long-expected, all-too-sudden technological revolution is ready to upend the economy.  A March Goldman Sachs report found over 300 million [...]

2023-07-31

• The monetary multiplier and bank reserves
  by ? in FRED blog, 2023-07-31 13:00:00 UTC

  The FRED graph above shows two different measures of money between 2005 and 2010: The red line tracks M2, which includes cash, checking deposits, and other short-term deposits. The green line tracks the monetary base, or M0, which includes only cash and bank reserves. The ratio of M2 to M0 (blue line) is often referred to as the “money multiplier,” a measure that describes how the  supply of private money (deposits) responds to the monetary base: As banks accumulate excess reserves in their account, they expand their deposits and lending activities. Between December 2007 and January 2009, M2 [...]

2023-07-27

• El costo de ser un nativo digital: efectos del acceso a internet en el desarrollo infantil
  by Natalia Nollenberger in Razones y personas: repensando Uruguay, 2023-07-27 22:37:00 UTC

  Por Karina Colombo y Elisa Failache En los últimos años, la exposición a dispositivos conectados a Internet de alta velocidad ha aumentado considerablemente a nivel mundial. [1] Las tecnologías son cada vez más comunes en nuestro día a día y el tiempo que pasamos conectados es cada vez mayor. Este fenómeno no es específico de las personas adultas, niños y niñas usan pantallas de forma cada vez más frecuente desde muy pequeños/as. [2] Uruguay no es ajeno a esta situación. Según datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Desarrollo Infantil y Salud del 2018, un 13% de niños/as menores de 12 meses mira a [...]

2023-07-26

• Are the Benefits of Electrification Realized Only in the Long Run? Evidence from Rural India
  by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend, 2023-07-26 06:42:00 UTC

    I have a new working paper coauthored with my master's student Suryadeepto Nag on the impact of rural electrification in India. Surya did his master's at IISER in Pune with me as his supervisor. He visited Canberra over the last Southern Summer. The effect of providing households with access to electricity has been a popular research topic. It's still not clear how large the benefits of such interventions are. Is electricity access an investment that generates growth? Or is it more of a consumption good that growing economies can afford? Researchers have used traditional econometric methods [...]

2023-07-19

• Fiscal conservatism, economic radicalism
  by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2023-07-19 12:19:03 UTC

  Sir Keir Starmer has ruled out significant rises in public spending under a Labour government. He's partly right. What his supporters and many critics fail to appreciate, however, is that a tight fiscal stance is wholly consistent with some very left-wing policies. First, why is he partly right? The answer has nothing to do with "iron-clad fiscal rules". Such talk is merely to appease the nonces, imbeciles and billionaires' gimps in the media. Instead, Labour's problem is that we are close to effective full employment; certainly, there are very few doctors or builders out of work. This means [...]

2023-07-06

• Trends in the construction of multifamily housing : The missing middle
  by ? in FRED blog, 2023-07-06 13:00:00 UTC

  The FRED Blog has discussed the relationship between single-family housing starts and completions and also how changes in overall housing market prices are measured . Today we build on the topic of housing by comparing trends in the type of residential constructions erected. The FRED graph above shows data from the US Census and the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) on the number of new, privately owned, completed housing units since 1968. There are three size types: single-family buildings (the blue area), buildings with 2 to 4 separate dwellings (the red area), and buildi [...]

• There is no recession threat in the USA due to immigration
  by Ivan Kitov in Economics as Classical Mechanics, 2023-07-06 09:32:00 UTC

  Immigration saves the US as it is able to mechanically increase real GDP just by population growth. The labor force growth drives inflation up as it was in the late 1960s and 1970s (women changed the rate of participation in labor force from ~50% to 80-90% just within one decade). The Fed has the only tool to put the rate of price inflation down - increase the overnight rate. As the real GDP has been growing in the previous couple of years mainly due to mechanical population increase (the population growth rate is back to 1.5% per year as in the 1990s) , there overnight rate does not have the [...]

2023-07-03

• Geopolitical Fragmentation, Regional Cooperation, and Prospects for ASEAN Trade and Value Chains
  by mplummer@jhubc.it (Michael Plummer) in Asia Economics Blog, 2023-07-03 14:10:46 UTC

  Introduction ASEAN countries are characterized by considerable diversity but share an outward-oriented development strategy. While intra-regional economic cooperation over the past two decades has been important, global, not regional, interaction has been the key to ASEAN’s success story.  Hence, the strong policy headwinds facing globalization in the post-Covid period threaten continued growth and prosperity in the region. Proposals in major markets to protect domestic industries by raising obstacles to trade vary from sectoral protection to more comprehensive “geopolitical” or “geoeconomic” [...]

2023-07-02

• Quotation of the Day…
  by Don Boudreaux in Cafe Hayek, 2023-07-02 08:30:00 UTC

  (Don Boudreaux) Tweet … is from page 85 of University of Connecticut economist Richard Langlois’s monumental 2023 study, The Corporation and the Twentieth Century (original emphasis; footnotes deleted; links added): The laissez-faire economists [around the turn of the 20th century], and often even their opponents, did not think in terms of an efficient equilibrium of prices, quantities, and number of firms; rather, following Adam Smith, they had a dynamic view of competition as active striving . Active competition took place along many margins, including both innovation and entry. The resu [...]

2023-07-01

• Cyberattaques dans les hôpitaux, universités, administrations… Comment mieux résister ?
  by The Conversation in Contrepoints, 2023-07-01 02:40:00 UTC

  Par Mohammed Chergui-Darif et Bruno Tiberghien.   Collectivités territoriales, administrations publiques, hôpitaux , écoles et universités , aucune de ces organisations publiques n’est à l’abri des cyberattaques , que la Défense française définit comme : « (toute) action volontaire, offensive et malveillante, menée au travers du cyberespace et destinée à provoquer un dommage (en disponibilité, intégrité ou confidentialité) aux informations ou aux systèmes qui les traitent, pouvant ainsi nuire aux activités dont ils sont le support. » Selon l’Agence de l’Union européenne pour la cybersécurité [...]

2023-06-29

• FRED maps of BEA regions : Grouping state-level economic activity
  by ? in FRED blog, 2023-06-29 13:00:00 UTC

  More than half of the data in FRED can be displayed in choropleth maps, which is a type of data visualization where geographical areas are colored differently according to the range of their data values. The contours of the geographical areas in FRED maps represent political and statistical boundaries. Political boundaries shape the counties, states, and nations we’re familiar with. But what is a statistical boundary? Who draws them? How did those boundaries come to be? Statistical boundaries are groupings of smaller geographies, such as counties, or states, that are drawn by data collection [...]

2023-06-27

• Jeux Olympiques et Paralympiques 2024 : quelles seront vraiment les retombées pour Paris ?
  by The Conversation in Contrepoints, 2023-06-27 02:45:33 UTC

  Par Hugo Bourbillères .   Les Jeux Olympiques et Paralympiques 2024 approchent pour Paris , et avec eux leurs lots de controverses qui abondent une tendance claire : la raréfaction des candidatures pour l’accueil des Jeux ces dernières années. Depuis 1997, plus de deux tiers des référendums voient le « non » l’emporter. Les contestataires dénoncent un gaspillage des deniers publics pour des projets qui n’auraient pas suffisamment d’utilité sociale. Pour contrer cela, le choix de candidater à un grand événement sportif international (GESI) se justifie de plus en plus par la promesse d’un hérita [...]

2023-06-13

• Macro Policy Update, 2022
  by calla.wiemer@acaes.us (Calla Wiemer) in Asia Economics Blog, 2023-06-13 15:00:32 UTC

  Against the blow of the pandemic, governments worldwide undertook expansionary monetary and fiscal policies. But by 2022, pressure was on to retrench as inflation reared up and government debt-to-GDP ratios mounted. This post continues a series that applies the framework developed in Macroeconomics for Emerging East Asia (Cambridge University Press, 2022; RePEc ) to analyzing monetary and fiscal policy. The series began with a trilogy of posts on the pandemic shock of 2020 and associated fiscal and monetary policy responses. There followed a post for 2021 in which the pandemic continued to fig [...]

2023-05-30

• Wie Einkommen und Einkommensungleichheit die Gesundheit beeinflussen
  by ? in Makronom, 2023-05-30 10:57:41 UTC

  Personen mit niedrigem sozioökonomischen Status weisen einen schlechteren allgemeinen Gesundheitszustand, ein erhöhtes Risiko für chronische Erkrankungen sowie eine geringere Lebenserwartung auf. Dabei spielt sowohl das eigene Einkommen als auch der Grad ö [...]

2023-05-29

• How to Quench the American West’s Thirst
  by Jeffrey Frankel in Project Syndicate, 2023-05-29 15:48:20 UTC

  CAMBRIDGE – A megadrought – the worst in 1,200 years – has been ravaging the American West for two decades, fueling wildfires and exacerbating the region’s chronic water shortages. As global temperatures continue to rise, severe droughts are becoming more frequent and intense – a trend not limited to the United States. Southern Europe , East and North Africa, Australia, and certain parts of Asia and Latin America are also grappling with extreme water scarcity. On May 22, seven western US states reached a historic deal to reduce water extraction from the drought-stricken Colorado River. Ariz [...]

2023-05-28

• No title
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-28 21:05:40 UTC

  2022: A SUMMARY OF FRAMED FIELD EXPERIMENTS ON FIELDEXPERIMENTS.COM: THE WHO’S, WHAT’S, WHERE’S, AND WHEN’S By: John List Abstract: In 2019 I put together a summary of data from my field experiments website that pertained to framed field experiments. Several people have asked me if I have an update. In this document I update all figures and numbers to show the details for 2022. I also include the description from the 2019 paper below with appropriate additions Date: 2023 URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:framed:00768&r=ltv [...]

• No title
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-28 21:01:36 UTC

  The Effect of Education Policy on Crime: An Intergenerational Perspective By: Costas Meghir (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Marten Palme (Stockholm University); Marieke Schnabel (University College London) Abstract: We study the intergenerational effect of education policy on crime. We use Swedish administrative data that links outcomes across generations with crime records and we show that the comprehensive school reform, gradually implemented between 1949 and 1962, reduced conviction rates both for the generation directly affected by the reform and for their sons. The reduction [...]

• No title
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-28 20:59:46 UTC

  Advances in the Economic Theory of Cultural Transmission By: Alberto Bisin; Thierry Verdier Abstract: In this paper we survey recent advances in the economic theory of cultural transmission. We highlight three main themes on which the literature has made great progress in the last ten years: the domain of traits subject to cultural transmission, the micro-foundations for the technology of transmission, and feedback effects between culture, institutions, and various socio-economic environments. We conclude suggesting interesting areas for future research. JEL: O10 P16 P48 URL: http://d.r [...]

• No title
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-28 20:58:02 UTC

  Working from Home Around the World By: Aksoy, Cevat Giray (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development); Barrero, Jose Maria (Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México Business School); Bloom, Nicholas (Stanford University); Davis, Steven J. (University of Chicago); Dolls, Mathias (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Zarate, Pablo (Princeton University) Abstract: The pandemic triggered a large, lasting shift to work from home (WFH). To study this shift, we survey full-time workers who finished primary school in 27 countries as of mid 2021 and early 2022. Our cross-country comparis [...]

2023-05-23

• No title
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-23 18:18:44 UTC

  The Labour Market Returns to Sleep By: Joan Costa-Font (LSE – London School of Economics and Political Science, IZA – Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit – Institute of Labor Economics, CESifo – Center for Economic Studies and Ifo for Economic Research – CESifo Group Munich); Sarah Fleche (CES – Centre d’économie de la Sorbonne – UP1 – Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne – CNRS – Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UP1 – Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CEP – LSE – Centre for Economic Performance – LSE – London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE – London S [...]

• No title
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-23 18:16:40 UTC

  Women’s transitions in the labour market as a result of childbearing: the challenges of formal sector employment in Indonesia By: Lisa Cameron (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Diana Contreras Suarez (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Yi-Ping Tseng (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne) Abstract: Although it is well established that women’s labour force participation drops markedly with marriage and childbearing, surprisingly little i [...]

• No title
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-23 18:15:56 UTC

  Air pollution: a review of its economic effects and policies to mitigate them By: Laura Hospido (Banco de España, CEMFI and IZA); Carlos Sanz (Banco de España and CEMFI); Ernesto Villanueva (Banco de España) Abstract: Air pollution is an increasing cause of concern among the scientific community, policymakers and the general public. This interest has led to a sharp increase in the number of scientific papers on air pollution. This paper provides a summary of the most prominent recent economic literature on the effects of air pollution, the main policy lessons that can be drawn from it, [...]

• No title
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-23 18:14:01 UTC

  Does School Choice Increase Crime? By: Andrew Bibler; Stephen B. Billings; Stephen Ross Abstract: School choice lotteries are an important tool for allocating access to high-quality and oversubscribed public schools. While prior evidence suggests that winning a school lottery decreases adult criminality, there is little evidence for how school choice lotteries impact non-lottery students who are left behind at their neighborhood school. We leverage variation in actual lottery winners conditional on expected lottery winners to link the displacement of middle school peers to adult crimina [...]

• No title
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-05-23 18:13:12 UTC

  Paying Moms to Stay Home: Short and Long Run Effects on Parents and Children By: Jonathan Gruber; Tuomas Kosonen; Kristiina Huttunen Abstract: We study the impacts of a policy designed to reward mothers who stay at home rather than join the labor force when their children are under age three. We use regional and over time variation to show that the Finnish Home Care Allowance (HCA) decreases maternal employment in both the short and long term. The effects are large enough for the existence of home care benefit system to explain the higher short-term child penalty in Finland than compara [...]

2023-05-16

• What the people want
  by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2023-05-16 08:14:09 UTC

  Years ago, before the Great Forgetting , economists knew that people's preferences often did not originate with themselves but were instead cultivated by producers themselves. Inspired by Vance Packard's best-selling 1957 book, The Hidden Persuaders , J.K. Galbraith wrote: Production fills only a void that it has itself created...That wants are in fact the fruit of production wll now be denied by few serious scholars...The even more direct link between production and wants is provided by the institutions of modern advertising and salesmanship. These cannto be reconciled with the notion of ind [...]

2023-05-10

• Winners and Losers in the AI Arms Race
  by Barry Eichengreen in Project Syndicate, 2023-05-10 08:45:30 UTC

  BERKELEY – The first rule of forecasting, the financial journalist Jane Bryant Quinn once observed , is this: give them a forecast or give them a date; just never give them both. So, here’s a not very bold forecast: Generative artificial-intelligence models like ChatGPT will revolutionize the economy. We just can’t say when. Nor can we say where. Among the key questions lost amid the flurry of commentary on generative AI is which countries will benefit, and which will not. Will the United States, a first mover in this domain, grow even more dominant economically? Will developing countri [...]

2023-05-01

• Constructing forward interest rates in FRED
  by ? in FRED blog, 2023-05-01 13:00:00 UTC

  A forward interest rate is a rate that pertains to a future loan and/or bond purchase. A forward transaction can be arranged in an over-the-counter market with a financial institution, or it can be constructed from existing fixed income instruments. A forward rate contract has at least two elements: the contract start and length. For example, a forward loan contract might commence 2 years in the future and last for 6 months. Such a contract might be termed a 6-month contract, 2 years ahead. Interest rate contracts (bonds or loans) that start immediately (or nearly so) are called spot market c [...]

2023-04-25

• Decarbonization Requires New Fiscal Rules
  by Max Krahé in Project Syndicate, 2023-04-25 11:45:08 UTC

  BERLIN – Climate policy is at a critical juncture . The world’s leading scientists see a rapidly closing window to avoid the worst ravages of global warming. With the enactment of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) last year, the United States has finally taken meaningful domestic action to reduce emissions. Now Europe is scrambling to respond. But the narrowly technical approach prevailing in the European Union – and particularly in Germany, its biggest member state – is steering Europe toward fiscal shoals and social turmoil. To chart a safer, more sustainable course, climate policy must b [...]

• Are startups engaging in innovation in India?
  by Anurodh in Ajay Shah's blog, 2023-04-25 08:46:00 UTC

  by Aneesha Chitgupi, Karthik Suresh and Diya Uday . Introduction What is a startup? The academic literature takes a broad view --- startups: have a high growth rate (Moogk 2012), have a lower number of employees (Beck et al. 2008), are at the early stage of the life cycle of a firm (Eisenmann 2013, Stevenson and Jarillo 1990), and are drivers of innovation (Cohen and Klepper, 1996). However, governments across the world focus on the link between startups and innovation. In the Netherlands , a startup is defined as "a business that translates an innovative idea into a scalable and generic [...]

2023-04-15

• When clever people do stupid things
  by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2023-04-15 09:09:47 UTC

  Simon Wren Lewis asks : There is no doubt that Lawson was far better qualified than many other Chancellors, and also that he was clever, so why did he get these major judgements wrong? It's a good question because it broadens. Clever people gave us the poll tax, the invasion of Iraq, financial crisis and collapses of Silicon Valley and Credit Suisse. So why do they so often get it wrong. There are many reasons. One, which Simon attributes to Lawson, is arrogance. In ignoring his advisors, Lawson did not go as far as Kwasi Kwarteng (double first, PhD and Browne medal) who sacked one of his. [...]

2023-04-13

• A Bank Murder Mystery
  by Barry Eichengreen in Project Syndicate, 2023-04-13 15:33:42 UTC

  BERKELEY – When a banking crisis erupted in early March, pundits rushed to the battlements, or at least to their studies, to hammer out columns assigning the blame. Unsurprisingly, those early assessments, based on still-incomplete information, often contradicted one another. It is worth recalling Walter Raleigh’s dictum: those who follow too close on the heels of history risk getting kicked in the teeth. A month later, the narrative has coalesced around four aspects, or interpretations, of the crisis. The first is what might be called the incompetent-management view. Silicon Valley Bank’s [...]

2023-04-05

• I ran Sarah Jacobson's "Ore Money Ore Problems" resource extraction game in class yesterday @SarahJacobsonEc
  by John Whitehead in Environmental Economics, 2023-04-05 08:15:00 UTC

  Here is the abstract from the paper which is forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Education: Economic theories of the exploitation of depletable natural resources are built around a core model of intertemporal profit maximization that predicts that (barring unforeseen shocks) scarcity crises will not arise because forward looking resource owners will smooth extraction over time. The model that provides this result can seem opaque to students, but its intuition can be more easily grasped from experience. This paper shares a game that provides that experience. Participants play the role of mi [...]

2023-04-04

• Legal and finance jobs are among the most at risk from AI, while construction and trade jobs face minimal influence, studies suggest
  by bnolan@insider.com (Beatrice Nolan) in Business Insider, 2023-04-04 10:33:58 UTC

  Generative AI could lead to the widespread automation of jobs, new research found. sorbetto/Getty Images Generative AI could lead to the widespread automation of jobs, new research found. But blue-collar roles in manufacturing and construction face minimal influence, data indicates. Here's why some industries will likely be more affected than others by the technology. Rapid advances in artificial intelligence are stoking employee concerns about the automation of jobs. Generative AI , a type of AI capable of generating text and other content in response to user prompts, has exploded in populari [...]

• La France face à l’abîme : la dette publique dépasse les 3000 milliards d’euros
  by Philippe Lacoude in Contrepoints, 2023-04-04 03:15:08 UTC

  La France a finalement atteint 3000 milliards d’euros de dette publique pour un produit intérieur brut (PIB) de seulement 2643 milliards d’euros. En 2014, je déplorais le passage aux 2000 milliards d’euros de dettes, et en 2018 le franchissement de la barre symbolique de 100 % du PIB. Alors qu’il avait fallu 11 ans pour passer de 1000 à 2000 milliards d’euros de dettes publiques, il n’aura donc fallu que 8 ans pour passer de 2000 à 3000 milliards d’euros. La vitesse à laquelle le Titanic français prend l’eau s’accélère donc. Peut-on continuer longtemps à ce rythme effréné ?   Gérer la dette  [...]

2023-03-29

• Announcements
  by Anurodh in Ajay Shah's blog, 2023-03-29 05:06:00 UTC

  TrustBridge is an organisation working in the area of rule of law in the economy. We engage in academic and policy oriented research and advocacy in the areas of Energy Transition, Financial Markets, Governance in Private Capital, and Government Contracting and Litigation. TrustBridge is looking for full time researchers to work on projects in the area of regulation of financial markets, governance and energy transition. Financial markets The financial markets project involves studying the working of regulators in securities markets, banking and payments, insolvency, and insurance. This incl [...]

2023-03-21

• What the World Bank Can Do About Climate Change
  by Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg in Project Syndicate, 2023-03-21 09:21:06 UTC

  NEW HAVEN – Few institutions have shown as much versatility and adaptability as the World Bank. Initially founded to address global capital-market imperfections after World War II, the institution’s primary mission evolved over time to focus on fighting extreme poverty. But now that the World Bank is welcoming a new president this July, it should adapt again, this time to address climate change. Poverty reduction, of course, should remain a high priority, considering that the COVID-19 pandemic has left many low-income countries in dire straits. But climate change has emerged as an equally i [...]

2023-03-20

• Fifty Years of Floating Currencies
  by Jeffrey Frankel in Project Syndicate, 2023-03-20 13:58:41 UTC

  CAMBRIDGE – Fifty years ago this month, in March 1973, the Bretton Woods arrangement of fixed exchange rates was abandoned, and the world’s major currencies – including the US dollar, pound, yen, and Deutsche Mark – were allowed to float. At the time, the system’s demise was generally considered a policy failure. But the shift from fixed to flexible exchange rates was probably inevitable. The international monetary system that was designed at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, in 1944, helped lay the economic foundation for the postwar international order. Over the next three decades, known in F [...]

2023-03-13

• Technical regress
  by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2023-03-13 09:05:07 UTC

  There's a fascinating TV series on now about modern social and economic history. I refer of course to the re-runs of Brookside on STV Player. One thing this shows is how many opportunities there in the 80s were for workers to top up their wages by stealing from their employers, either by putting their hands in the till or by nicking stuff to sell to their friends. The closure of such opportunities thanks in part to technical change might help explain increased inequality and the Easterlin paradox, as I discussed here . But there's something else. In one episode the post arrives at breakfast t [...]

2023-03-06

• 6 consejos para ascender en el trabajo, según la ciencia
  by José Andrés García in Elblogsalmon, 2023-03-06 10:00:30 UTC

  Cobrar más es la manera más efectiva de mejorar nuestra economía doméstica. Los trucos de ahorro funcionan, pero no cambiarán nada radicalmente a menos que los ingresos aumenten. Por eso, aunque también es cierto que cuanto más ganas, más gastas , quiero detallar algunos factores que, según los datos, nos ayudarán a ascender en el trabajo y que nos paguen más. Antes de nada, comentar que ya vimos varios consejos polémicos para promocionar en nuestro empleo. Funcionan y deberíamos conocerlos , nos gusten o no. [...]

2023-03-05

• If You Say “Convenience Yield” I Will Not Take You (or Your Research) Seriously
  by cpirrong in Streetwise Professor, 2023-03-05 22:57:06 UTC

  I have a relatively simple way to filter out serious research on commodity prices from the not-so-serious. If you rely on “convenience yield” I will not take you seriously. Alas, based on this filter, the bulk of commodities research is unserious. For the uninitiated (consider yourself lucky!), convenience yield is an attempt to explain that commodity futures prices are typically at less than “full carry”, i.e ., that futures prices are below the spot price plus the cost of carrying inventory (financing plus physical storage costs). Furthermore, convenience yield is invoked to explain [...]

• Health impact of increasing access to physicians
  by Jason Shafrin in Healthcare Economist, 2023-03-05 20:49:16 UTC

  Out recently is an interesting AEA paper by Okeke 2023 , who examines a policy experiment by the Nigerian government that aimed determine whether expand access to physicians improved health outcomes. In this experiment, some communities were randomly selected to receive a new doctor. These doctors were posted to the local public health center. Prior to their arrival, health care was provided by midlevel health-care providers (MLP). To separate the effect of (ostensibly higher) quality from that of quantity, another group of communities was provided with an additional midlevel provider. [...]

2023-03-03

• Now we just wait for the comment from Desvousges, Mathews and Train
  by John Whitehead in Environmental Economics, 2023-03-03 10:10:00 UTC

  Yesterday I spent 2 hours revising a final version of this paper so that we can say it is "forthcoming" in Applied Economic Perspectives & Policy . Here is Figure 1: [...]

2023-03-01

• No title
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-03-01 10:35:12 UTC

  Labor market insurance policies in the XXI century By: Boeri, Tito; Cahuc, Pierre Abstract: The recovery from the Covid-19 crisis will force governments to accelerate transformation in their menu of labor market policy tools. The crisis was a stress test for unemployment insurance schemes as it involved a sudden and unexpected shutdown of a very large set of activities. This forced countries to introduce, often from scratch, income support schemes for workers under new forms of employment, and the self-employed. There was also a considerable expansion of short-time work schemes notably tow [...]

• No title
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-03-01 10:34:26 UTC

  2022: A SUMMARY OF ARTEFACTUAL FIELD EXPERIMENTS ON FIELDEXPERIMENTS.COM: THE WHO’S, WHAT’S, WHERE’S, AND WHEN’S By: John List Abstract: 2022 Summary of Artefactual Experiments Date: 2023 URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:artefa:00767&r=ltv [...]

• No title
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-03-01 10:32:26 UTC

  What makes a satisfying life? Prediction and interpretation with machine-learning algorithms By: Clark, Andrew E.; D’Ambrosio, Conchita; Gentile, Niccoló; Tkatchenko, Alexandre Abstract: Machine Learning (ML) methods are increasingly being used across a variety of fields and have led to the discovery of intricate relationships between variables. We here apply ML methods to predict and interpret life satisfaction using data from the UK British Cohort Study. We discuss the application of first Penalized Linear Models and then one non-linear method, Random Forests. We present two key model [...]

2023-02-27

• No title
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-02-27 18:52:29 UTC

  Explaining Happiness Trends in Europe By: Easterlin, Richard A. (University of Southern California); O’Connor, Kelsey J. (STATEC Research – National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies) Abstract: In Europe differences among countries in the overall change in happiness since the early 1980s have been due chiefly to the generosity of welfare state programs— increasing happiness going with increasing generosity and declining happiness with declining generosity. This is the principal conclusion from a time series study of ten Northern, Western, and Southern European countries with [...]

• No title
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-02-27 18:50:57 UTC

  The Adventure of Running Experiments with Teenagers By: Antonio Alfonso-Costillo (Universidad Loyola); Pablo Brañas-Garza (Universidad Loyola); Diego Jorrat (Universidad Loyola); Pablo Lomas (Universidad Loyola); Benjamin Prissé (Universidad Loyola); Mónica Vasco (Universidad Loyola) Abstract: Economists are increasingly interested in how to conduct experiments with teenagers. This paper evaluates whether different methodological factors impact the answers of teenagers to standard experimental tasks on measuring time preferences, risk preferences, cognitive abilities and financial abili [...]

• No title
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-02-27 18:49:49 UTC

  Persecution and Escape By: Sascha O. Becker (Monash University and University of Warwick); Volker Lindenthal (LMU Munich); Sharun Mukand (University of Warwick); Fabian Waldinger (LMU Munich) Abstract: We study the role of professional networks in facilitating emigration of Jewish academics dismissed from their positions by the Nazi government. We use individual-level exogenous variation in the timing of dismissals to estimate causal effects. Academics with more ties to early émigrés (emigrated 1933-1934) were more likely to emigrate. Early émigrés functioned as “bridging nodes” that fa [...]

• No title
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-02-27 18:47:42 UTC

  Home alone: Widows’ Well-Being and Time By: Maja Adena (WZB Berlin); Daniel Hamermesh (University of Texas at Austin); Michal Myck (Centre for Economic Analysis); Monika Oczkowska (Centre for Economic Analysis) Abstract: Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE, 2004-17) and time diaries from Poland (2013), the U.S. (2006-16), the U.K. (2014-15) and France (2009-10), we examine differences between widowed and partnered older women in well-being and its development in widowhood. Most importantly, our analysis accounts for time use, an aspect which has [...]

• No title
  by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog, 2023-02-27 18:46:37 UTC

  Gender Gaps and Family Policies in Latin America By: Estefanía Galván (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Cecilia Parada (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Martina Querejeta (Universidad de la República (Uruguay)); Soledad Salvador (Centro Interdisciplinario de Estudios sobre el Desarrollo, Uruguay) Abstract: Gender equality in the labor market remains a difficult challenge in Latin America and recent literature shows that chi [...]

2023-02-24

• Three types of "error"
  by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2023-02-24 13:09:38 UTC

  It's often the case that sport can give us lessons for other walks of life. So it is with Mikel Arteta's recent reaction to Lee Mason's failure to draw the lines on the TV replay which would have shown that Brentford's equalizing goal was offside. He said : That wasn’t a human error…it was a big, big, big, not conceiving or understanding your job. That’s not acceptable. This distinction is a nice one. In environments where there is uncertainty, time pressure and incomplete information human errors are inevitable and thus forgivable (although the history of the airline industry shows they can [...]

2023-02-21

• Anti-business
  by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2023-02-21 13:07:57 UTC

  Rachel Reeves claims to be "pro-business." At risk of mistaking a vacuous cliche for a serious proposition, I'm not sure she should be. It's not obvious that business has intrinsic virtues. Yes, some businessmen are genuinely committed to virtues of excellence even if they don't use that MacIntyrean term, but equally business is a location of hierarchy, unfreedom, bullshit jobs and bullshit language. What's more, the single-minded pursuit of short-term profit often displaces such virtues. It can crowd out altruism or professional pride; incentivize managers to chase a quick buck through fraud [...]

2023-02-10

• Weird politicians
  by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2023-02-10 12:55:20 UTC

  Our political system is dysfunctional. It selects for the incompetent, the dishonest and the downright deluded. So much is obvious to those who care to think about it. What's not so obvious is that there is a more subtle bias in politics which distorts and diminishes political debate. Recall that all institutions are selection devices: they select for some people and ideas and against others by filtering out some types and by disproportionately attracting others. Even if we had a well-functioning system which selected against crooks, fools, narcissists, egomaniacs and sociopaths our politici [...]

2023-02-05

• Chartbook #194 Can Beijing halt China’s housing avalanche? The most important economic-policy question for 2023?
  by Adam Tooze in Adam Tooze, 2023-02-05 21:37:56 UTC

  Source: FT Few things matter more for the world economy in 2023 than China’s fortunes. Not since the reform period began, have there been more serious question marks over the trajectory of China’s growth. The 2015-6 near-miss crisis, when the RMB depreciated and capital flooded out of China was a more acute moment of danger. Fear of a repetition still hangs over the current scene. But in 2015-6, the growth engine was not spluttering to the same degree. China did not face the kind of labour market pressures it does today, with youth unemployment rising towards 20 percent and graduate [...]

2023-01-30

• Money, e-money and consumer welfare
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2023-01-30 14:19:00 UTC

  By Francesco Carli and Burak Uras http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:152022&r=dge We develop a micro-founded monetary model to inquire the role of a privately provided e-money instrument for household consumption smoothing and welfare. Different from fiat money, e-money users pay electronic transaction fees, but in turn e-money reduces spatial separation frictions and enables risk-sharing. We characterize the conditions that promotes e-money to be Pareto improving and the conditions when e-money reduces its users’ welfare – despite for the consumption-smoothing it induces. We calibrate ou [...]

2023-01-26

• Cycles in lending standards : Data from the senior loan officer opinion survey
  by ? in FRED blog, 2023-01-26 14:00:00 UTC

  FRED recently added more data from the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) . The survey, conducted by the Board of Governors, is currently sent to 124 domestic banks and US branches and agencies of foreign banks. The senior loan officers at those organizations answer a series of questions about their opinions on current lending practices. This qualitative information is used by monetary policymakers to gauge credit market and banking conditions. The FRED graph above shows the fraction of domestic banks that reported having tightened their lending standards min [...]

2023-01-24

• Job Ladder, Human Capital, and the Cost of Job Loss
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2023-01-24 18:13:03 UTC

  By Richard Audoly, Federica De Pace and Giulio Fella http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:95392&r=dge High-tenure workers losing their job experience a large and prolonged fall in wages and earnings. The aim of this paper is to understand and quantify the forces behind this empirical regularity. We propose a structural model of the labor market with (i) on-the-job search, (ii) general human capital, and (iii) firm specific human capital. Jobs are destroyed at an endogenous rate due to idiosyncratic productivity shocks and the skills of workers depreciate during periods of non-employment. Th [...]

2023-01-17

• The Dynamics of the Racial Wealth Gap
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2023-01-17 16:46:36 UTC

  By Dionissi Aliprantis, Daniel Carroll and Eric Young http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2022-044&r=dge What drives the dynamics of the racial wealth gap? We answer this question using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium heterogeneous-agents model. Our calibrated model endogenously produces a racial wealth gap matching that observed in recent decades along with key features of the current cross-sectional distribution of wealth, earnings, intergenerational transfers, and race. Our model predicts that equalizing earnings is by far the most important mechanism for permanently closing th [...]

• Homelessness
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2023-01-17 16:15:45 UTC

  By Ayşe İmrohoroğlu and Kai Zhao http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2022-17&r=dge This paper examines the effectiveness of several policies in reducing the aggregate share of homeless in a dynamic general equilibrium model. The model economy is calibrated to capture the most at-risk groups and generates a diverse population of homeless with a significant fraction becoming homeless for short spells due to labor market shocks and a smaller fraction experiencing chronic homelessness due to health shocks. Our policy experiments show housing subsidies to be more effective in reducing the agg [...]

2023-01-16

• Kenya: Kenya and South Africa Are Working to Address Trade Barriers
  by ? in Whats New, 2023-01-16 15:51:38 UTC

  WhatsNew2Day - Latest News And Breaking Headlines Trade volumes between Kenya and South Africa have always been minimal compared to each country’s engagement with its other major trading partners. But in recent years, leaders of the two countries ha [...]

2023-01-13

• China and the Sovereign-Debt Bomb
  by Anne O. Krueger in Project Syndicate, 2023-01-13 14:05:37 UTC

  WASHINGTON, DC – International capital flows have long been a major source of economic growth. Savings in higher-income countries have financed high-yielding investments in low-income countries, generating benefits for all. After World War II, capital flows under the Marshall Plan drove the rapid reconstruction of Europe, and after those countries recovered, they extended their own foreign aid and other official financial flows to the developing world. Private financing also increased substantially; by the 1990s, it accounted for over half of total capital flows to developing countries. Some [...]

• 51. Informes de la Asociación Euro-Americana 2023: Brasil y otros países americanos en 1960-2022
  by MCG Blogs de Economía in Asociación de Estudios Euro-Americanos: Desarrollo internacional de América, Europa y otras áreas, 2023-01-13 13:50:00 UTC

    Tabla 1. Evolución del PIB per cápita, 2012-2018 en 9 países de América (Dólares del año 2010 según paridades)                               2012 2018 Diferencia Estados Unidos 49518 54401 4883 Canada 41195 43430 2235 Argentina 19000 18829 -171 Brazil 14979 14026 -953 Chile 19846 21408 1562 Colombia 11707 13181 1474 Mexico 16004 17315 1311 Peru 10731 12169 1438 Venezuela 1473 [...]

2023-01-11

• The full employment challenge
  by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling, 2023-01-11 13:44:09 UTC

  Many technocrats think the UK is at or around full employment. What they don't say is that this requires some radical thinking about economic policy. The Bank's chief economist Huw Pill recently said that the labour market so tight that higher interest rates might be needed to cut aggregate demand and inflation. And Sir Keir Starmer says : "We’re going to have to be fiscally disciplined." The only charitable reading of this is that it means he thinks he's going to inherit a reasonably tight labour market (albeit perhaps not as much so as now) and so a fiscal expansion would be inflationary. W [...]

2023-01-07

• Weekend reading links
  by noreply@blogger.com (Urbanomics) in Urbanomics, 2023-01-07 14:36:00 UTC

  1. Industrial policy in the US The chips and Science Act , a $280bn effort to shore up America’s microchips industry... the administration eventually compromised enough to overcome the resistance of Joe Manchin of West Virginia, often the swing Democrat in a 50-50 Senate, to pass a more modest, inaptly named Inflation Reduction Act , promising spending of $369bn over a decade. Its climate spending will be the most substantial in American history. Together with an infrastructure package passed in November 2021, the trio of bills will make for annual spending of nearly $100bn on industrial polic [...]

2023-01-06

• Joe Brandon Smash
  by ? in Lawyers, Guns & Money, 2023-01-06 03:12:54 UTC

  This is an excellent example of the distinction between actual populist constraints on corporate power and the empty bullshit being offered by Josh Hawley et. al: In a far-reaching move that could raise wages and increase competition among busines [...]

2023-01-05

• U.S. Moves to Bar Noncompete Agreements in Labor Contracts
  by ? in NYT > Politics, 2023-01-05 15:00:07 UTC

  A sweeping proposal by the Federal Trade Commission would block companies from limiting their employees’ ability to work for a rival. [...]

2022-12-26

• Long-Term Economic Implications of Demeny Voting: A Theoretical Analysis
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-12-26 17:11:29 UTC

  By Luigi Bonatti and Lorenza Alexandra Lorenzetti http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10039&r=dge This paper places itself at the intersection between the literature on “Demeny voting” (the proposal of letting custodial parents exercise their children’s voting rights until they come of age) and the vast literature on formal models with endogenous fertility that address the problem of fiscal redistribution between young and old cohorts in the presence of an aging population. Linking these issues to the process of economic growth through a simple overlapping generations model, we show that [...]

• New indicators of perceived inflation in France based on media data
  by raphael.moncomble in Eco Notepad, 2022-12-26 14:31:41 UTC

  Published on 12/27/2022 By Jean-Charles Bricongne , Olivier de Bandt , Annabelle de Gaye, Julien Denes, Paul Hubert , Pierre-Antoine Robert The recent rise in inflation could affect households' and businesses' perception of inflation. This post describes new indicators of perceived inflation in France constructed from alternative data: newspaper articles and messages from the social network Twitter. The advantage of such data is that they are available at high frequency and in real time. Billet_299_VE.pdf Chart 1. Indicators of perceived inflation based on media data (standardised and re [...]

2022-12-23

• Optimal GDP-indexed Bonds
  by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog, 2022-12-23 05:04:59 UTC

  By Yasin Kürsat Önder http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:22/1056&r=dge I investigate the introduction of GDP-indexed bonds as an additional source of government borrowing in a quantitative default model. The idea of linking debt payments to developments in GDP resurfaced with the 1980s debt crisis and peaked with the COVID-19 outbreak. I show that the gains from this idea depend on the underlying indexation method and are highest if payments are symmetrically tied to developments in GDP. Optimized indexed debt can eradicate default risk, halve consumption volatility, and increase asset pr [...]

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